The Miami Heat Are A Little Bit Caught in the Middle
After a Finals run, the Heat find themselves tangled up in a weird season where they’ll have some decisions ahead about both the future and present.
Where oh where have the “Bubble Heat” gone? That’s a question many Heat fans are asking themselves as we reach the quarter point of the 2020-2021 season. It’s been a whirlwind of Covid protocols, injuries, inconsistency, and turnover problems. Frustration is an easy emotion to tilt towards in times like this, and I don’t blame either the team, fans, or staff for heading in that direction. But frustration doesn’t have to lead to full-on panic, and maybe that’s where fans’ minds are at or headed towards. And in turn, they expect the front office to echo the same sentiments. Already expecting to see drastic changes in a season that’s already drastically different on its own. This isn’t a regular year for the entire league, but that doesn’t mean Miami is completely out of the woods. Even in a somewhat regular year, some of the questions being asked would still need answers.
The Hand Dealt
Everyone knew this year was going to be different—the lack of preparation, the shuffling of games and rosters. Everything was set up for a bad mix that not even a gourmet chef could make palatable. It’s been more than rough for almost the entire league. It doesn’t help that the protocols have especially hit a team like the Heat that relies so much on everyone being in such tune and synchronicity. They’re like a college marching band in that they perform at their highest peak when all the instruments and steps are in sync. If even a section is off by a note or isn’t there, the whole thing is more susceptible to faltering. The margins matter more to a team like Miami. Their top-level talent isn’t like the Big 3, where it was a lot easier to go game to game with less of a supporting cast. Such a season like this really hinders a team whose main brass section has been out for most of the year. Still, you can understand the frustrations as the team is almost completely the same as the one that left the bubble. Continuity shouldn’t be as big of a problem as it is. They have yet to replace that grit, defense, and spacing Jae Crowder gave them in the playoffs. But all the problems the team has had shouldn’t be based on losing a career journeyman. It doesn’t help that this start has just fueled the flames started by people wondering if the bubble was just a fluke. “We have to figure this out” were the words from rising star Bam Adebayo after a tough loss to the lowly Pistons on January 16th. They stepped up, winning against the same team a few days later, but the win still left a lot to be desired. The team would then win again against the similar Toronto Raptors for their first back-to-back semi-solid showing. It remains to be seen if they have found that consistency they’ve been searching for. They have to figure it out in many ways.
The Questions At Hand
While figuring out the on-court issues is a must, there's a lot off the court that hangs over the team as well. Should they care about this regular season all that much? They not only proved last year that the team was built for the challenge as a 5 seed, and they did so while never being pushed to 7 games in any series. But will this season’s playoffs end in a bubble? It’s still unclear. According to Brian Windhorst, the league could go the route of getting vaccinated as some form of showing communities how safe it is. Even with that, will homecourt even matter all that much? Fans will probably still not be in the stands come playoff time, after all.
Does Miami treat the year as if it were one long mix of the preseason and actual games? With the number of players they seem to have every night, they may not have a choice. How much does that depth matter when it seems not to be enough? There’ll be a point where you can’t afford to fall back too much. You can’t find yourself playing in the play-in tournament, followed by taking on the 1 or 2 seed right out of the gates.
Only a couple of more weeks of inconsistent play could force the hands of Pat Riley and Andy Ellisburg. Or will it? They might view this season as a write-off of sorts. Maybe they have the same thoughts as others who view this year as a “sham” that makes a mockery of competitive integrity. If so, everyone has to be prepared to go through one of the most awkward years of Miami Heat basketball. The front office and the fans will need to wait and see what they have at full strength first. But what if this year won’t allow for that to happen? They might only be allowed small glimpses throughout the year. It’s an awkward dance everyone might have to get used to.
On the other hand, maybe Pat Riley will put his foot down and make a move for someone like Victor Oladipo or Bradley Beal (if he were to become available). Maybe he won’t take kindly that people who called his team a fluke are getting any semblance of vindication right now. People will bring up the depth you’d lose in trades like this, but it’s not like it’s done you many favors so far in the season. As I mentioned earlier, the margins matter much less the better your top-end talent is.
Then there’ll be more questions about not just this year but the team's future. Who will you be giving up for those potential big swings? Are you willing to surrender Duncan Robinson or Tyler Herro (maybe both) in a deal for Oladipo or Beal? After all, the team will have to give Robinson a big payday next offseason, as we’ve seen with teams and their sharpshooters like Brooklyn with Joe Harris and Davis Bertans with Washington. Is there confidence within the organization where they feel Robinson and Herro can be those types of players around your 2 studs in Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo to get you a championship? Even if it’s just a move for a veteran guy like Kyle Lowry, PJ Tucker, or Otto Porter Jr., does the team feel like that move would be necessary? It sure feels like it so far. These moves might also cost at least a guy like Precious Achiuwa or one of your dwindling amount of first-round picks. Not to forget that the East has gotten a lot tougher since that treasured playoff run, which could considerably influence the choices. These decisions aren’t easy to make, especially when you consider the team feeling like they have to get a championship for guys like Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic. “We feel a great responsibility for Jimmy to win now, instead of pushing this thing down the line.” Those were the words of head coach Erik Spoelstra before the start of the season. If they feel that responsibility, it sure seems like it’d be a mistake to treat this year as a gap year, especially after reaching the NBA Finals last season. It would be more palatable to take it as such if the 2021 Free Agency field had not been trimmed considerably over the past month and a half.
As mentioned before, most if not all of this also hinges on the internal improvement of guys like Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, and Duncan Robinson. The leaps they could make might make this an easier decision for the team moving forward. More so for Bam Adebayo, who is the pillar of this team’s future. This is the middle they find themselves in.
Where to Go Now?
This year, Miami sits as a team, almost unsure whether it’s competing for today or tomorrow. Will they take that plunge and trade a young promising player for something that will help you in the short term. Or will they sit and wait for the season to calm down in some way and ride it out with the crew they grew to love, hoping the leaps come from their young guns. But in doing so, will they have wasted a season of Jimmy Butler’s prime? Something they’ve already stated they don’t want to do. Nothing encapsulates the current struggle of the future and present, quite like the battle between Moe Harkless and KZ Okpala for the starting 4 spot. One a veteran who could help you now but is struggling to show much on the court. And the other is seen by the team as a “prized” young kid among the franchise who could be the future of that spot but still has some things to work out. Maybe a Covid labeled season will never allow you to answer these types of questions as clear as you want to. The foggy windows of the uncertain future won’t just clear up with one quick wipe. I don’t blame the fans for not feeling like they’re getting a straight answer one way or another.
But don’t get too frustrated too early. They’ll get back to playing Miami Heat basketball. The question is if it’ll be enough. Is the peak of this team as is enough to reach the mountaintop once again? A peak still in question since it hinges on such a wide swath of young players with potential still left to be unearthed. Erik Spoelstra always tells the media, “we have enough,” but will it be at the end of the year? Or maybe they’ll turn elsewhere that will give them “enough.” Personally, I think there’s a move to be made. Not necessarily a big one, but something that shores up the rotations, mainly at the power forward or point guard positions. We’ll have to wait and see which direction the team decides on at this ever so slight fork in the road.